Comments for context/Earth

<[|] Comment on Is the SOI noisy or is it signal? by admin> Tue, 14 Nov 2017 23:41:19 +0000

The ones I noted they found are {2.5, 3.8, 5, 12, 65} years. Yet, I would not consider these resonant frequencies, as the system is forced to begin with. The impulse response of the diffEq I am using has a weak resonance at 1 year and that is more from the 1-year delay differential than anything else. So you have the correct interpretation, in that this paper has completely failed to determine the real drivers. ENSO is no different than ocean tides when it comes to its fundamental behavior -- all the periods observed are forced from external drivers, in both cases arising from the influence of the moon and the sun.

<[|] Comment on Is the SOI noisy or is it signal? by wyzelli> Tue, 14 Nov 2017 23:26:38 +0000

Am I correct that the Bruun (et al) paper finds some of the resonant frequencies, but completely fails to hypothesize the drivers?

<[|] Comment on Is the SOI noisy or is it signal? by admin> Tue, 14 Nov 2017 00:44:53 +0000

Another paper that claims to find the &quot;heartbeat&quot; of ENSO J. T. Bruun, J. Allen, and T. J. Smyth, “Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2017. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JC012892/full And recently reported &quot;reduced predictability&quot; for ENSO &quot;ENSO forecasts near the spring predictability barrier and possible reasons for the recently reduced predictability&quot; http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0180.1

<[|] Comment on Approximating the ENSO Forcing Potential by admin> Mon, 13 Nov 2017 20:52:08 +0000

Minimal filtering (triangle = 0.5 of month + 0.25 each adjacent month ) &lt;img src=&quot;http://imageshack.com/a/img924/6309/kjmyPT.png&quot;/&gt; This comprises only two fundamental sinusoidal waves to generate the model fit, transformed by a seasonal impulse and Laplace&#039;s tidal equation for the equator. Given the fact that the ENSO signal is considered chaotic, no one could expect that 2 sinusoids could do the job. How could it? Well, that&#039;s the characteristic of the natural world. It can easily hide the order and regularity via the most subtle of response functions.

<[|] Comment on Reverse Engineering the Moon's Orbit from ENSO Behavior by Is the SOI noisy or is it signal? | context/Earth> Wed, 08 Nov 2017 17:50:12 +0000

[&#8230;] my simplification of Laplace&#039;s equation was originally applied to QBO, it is applicable to other equatorial standing wave phenomenon such as ENSO, of which the SOI is a measure. The SOI signal has always been considered noisy — especially in [&#8230;]

<[|] Comment on Compact QBO Derivation by Is the SOI noisy or is it signal? | context/Earth> Wed, 08 Nov 2017 17:49:54 +0000

[&#8230;] this 3-month averaged SOI fit, it&#039;s a sin(sin(f(t))) function in the ENSO model that generates the folded signal which appears as a rapidly fluctuating and noisy [&#8230;]

<[|] Comment on Alternate simplification of QBO from Laplace's Tidal Equations by Is the SOI noisy or is it signal? | context/Earth> Wed, 08 Nov 2017 17:49:38 +0000

[&#8230;] the analytical solution to Laplace&#039;s tidal equations, we can isolate the parts of the Southern Oscillation Index signal that appear quite noisy (i.e. [&#8230;]

<[|] Comment on Approximating the ENSO Forcing Potential by admin> Mon, 06 Nov 2017 20:22:32 +0000

This is a neat analysis paper deriving lunar cycles CHALUB, Fabio A.C.C.. The Saros cycle: obtaining eclipse periodicity from Newton&#039;s laws. Rev. Bras. Ensino Fís. 2009, vol.31, n.1 &lt;http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1806-11172009000100003&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso&gt;. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S1806-11172009000100003. Also Long Period Tidal Force Variations and Regularities in Orbital Motion of the Earth-Moon Binary Planet System https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1205/1205.0819.pdf

<[|] Comment on Approximating the ENSO Forcing Potential by admin> Sat, 04 Nov 2017 01:07:52 +0000

Another article on the QBO anomaly http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075576/full C. A. Barton and J. P. McCormack, “Origin of the 2016 QBO Disruption and Its Relationship to Extreme El Niño Events,” Geophys. Res. Lett. &lt;blockquote&gt;&quot;The regularity of the QBO since its discovery has underscored its high predictability and promoted its utility for skillful long-range prediction&quot;&lt;/blockquote&gt; The issue is not that everyone realizes that QBO is regular (in contrast to ENSO, which is not obvious to the eye), but that they do not have the underlying mechanism for the regularity understood.

<[|] Comment on ENSO Split Training for Cross-Validation by Approximating the ENSO Forcing Potential | context/Earth> Fri, 03 Nov 2017 23:32:31 +0000

[&#8230;] simpler formulation should result in less over-fitting in cross-validation training intervals. The figure below uses only data to 1980 and the solver has complete freedom to readjust the [&#8230;]